Everbright Garbo (600622) March 2019 Commentary: Short-term performance shift is difficult to hide sales volume public offering REITS is ready

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three quarters achieved revenue of 33.

65 billion, previously +11.

56%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

03 billion, at least -30.

22%, basic EPS0.

20 yuan / share.

  n Revenue is stable, short-term performance has improved, and financial stability is low. 1) Revenue has steadily increased, and short-term performance has increased due to gradual settlement of project profit margins: the company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 2019 was 33.

65 billion, previously +11.

56%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

03 billion, at least -30.

22%, gross margin from 56 at the end of 2018.

97% decreased to 37.

34%, mainly due to the decrease in gross profit of the relocated suite project carried over from the real estate business in the current period, and the net profit margin was 24 at the end of 2018.

58% reduced to 9.

26%, mainly due to the increase in financing scale, financial expenses every +229.

98%, while the management fee is +43 each time.

42%; 2) Financial health leverage is low: the company has monetary funds at the end of the reporting period57.

6.3 billion, +18 a year.

71%, which is short-term borrowing plus one-year internal interest-bearing debt2.

78 times, the margin of safety is high; overall, as of the end of the reporting period, the company’s asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payments was 63 at the end of 18 years.

37% revoke 61.

81%; due to new borrowings, the net denial rate was 37 at the end of 18 years.

04% rose to 49.

21%, overall controllable.

  The sales of real estate business increased rapidly, and the outstanding performance of outstanding projects was supported.

180,000 cubic meters, an increase of 277 each year.


Contract sales income 30.

10 billion, an increase of 121 every year.

72%; 2) Adequate sold and outstanding resources: At the end of the reporting period, the company’s accounts received in advance 41.

18 billion, an increase of 43 at the end of the earlier 18 years.

99%, mainly due to advance sales of housing sales, support future performance.

  Real estate asset management income fell slightly, and public real estate investment trusts have large imagination space 1) Asset management scale slightly decreased: 2019Q3 company’s real estate asset management income was slightly 4.

45 billion, a decrease of 3 per year.

65%: Management and consulting service fee income3.

9.2 billion, a decrease of 5 per year.

81%; affected by the new rules on asset management, the company managed 467 funds at the end of the reporting period.

7.7 billion less than the initial 3.3.3 billion, the management scale decreased slightly 3.

94%, resulting in a decrease in management fee income; 2) Public offering of REITs may soon be launched: 18 years of REITs products have been tried frequently, and policies have been intensive in various aspects since 19 years: at the end of March, the Development Research Center of the State Council securitized REITsGroup Secretary-General Wang Bufang stated that “the first batch of pilot products for public offering of REITs will be launched in the near future”; on April 8th, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange stated “actively promote the progress of public offering of REITs”; on June 27th, the member of the National Committee of the Chinese People ‘s Political Consultative Conference at the China REITs ForumChairman Xiao Gang stated that it is imperative to develop public offering REITs.

We expect that public-funded real estate investment trust funds will be launched in a large probability within the next 1-2 years. Based on the current domestic real estate management scale and level, the industry development is still in its infancy, and the company has obvious competitive advantages as an industry leader and has a promising future.

  Investment suggestion: The improvement of the company’s net profit in Q3 of 19 is mainly due to the decline in the gross profit margin of real estate development business and the increase in financial expenses, but the company’s existing inventory of available resources for sale is still abundant, and the unsold resources are abundant.Supported; in the asset management business, the company’s real estate management fee income declined slightly and the asset management scale was basically stable. After the Everbright Anshi team took over the connection, its management advantages and industry will gradually become more prominent. Therefore, as the company as aTargets of scarce stocks of REITs will continue to benefit from the rise of stock asset management and the expectation of public offering of REITs.

We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

79 yuan, 0.

95 yuan, 1.

07 yuan, corresponding to PE5.

24X, 4.

36X, 3.

87X, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: The progress of public offering of REITs pilots exceeds expectations, and sales of real estate development business are 夜来香体验网 gradually expected.